Market intel / updated 2026-11-05
The 30 markets that decide the AI build
Two things decide where AI capacity actually gets built: physical power, and permission. We track both for each top market. That means the utility and the queue, the large-load tariff, the projects, the moratoria and the bills, plus our read on whether each market is heating up or cooling down.
Why this page exists
Compute and regulation: the two walls in front of the AI build
Anthropic's S-1 ranks compute access second and third among its summary risk factors, right behind building the best models. It also lists the regulatory and political environment as a summary risk, and it names data center moratoria directly:
"If we are unable to secure adequate compute or if we fail to direct our compute effectively across our workloads, we may be unable to train models that remain competitive with those of our competitors or adequately serve our customers." / "Constraints on the critical inputs supporting compute could limit our ability to secure adequate compute."Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1/A, summary risk factors (filed Nov 2, 2026)
"Certain state, local, and municipal jurisdictions in the United States are also considering or have approved moratoriums on new data center construction … Opposition to data center development has also become more organized and coordinated across jurisdictions."Anthropic, PBC, Form S-1/A, risk factors (filed Nov 2, 2026)
How we chose the 30
Ranked by public data, not vibes
Markets 1-26 are the U.S. markets in Cushman & Wakefield's 2026 Americas ranking (primary, secondary and tertiary tiers; Toronto, Montreal, Santiago and Alberta excluded). Nashville and Memphis are in C&W's grid-stability top 10. We added Indiana and Pennsylvania for their announced hyperscale pipelines, and we label them as our additions.
CBRE's H1 2026 report supplies inventory and vacancy for its eight primary markets. North America's primary-market vacancy is 1.4%, and less than 1,500 MW under construction is still available, about six months of demand.
Top 5 regulatory signals right now as of 2026-11-05
- Texas, the #1-ranked market, is frozen at the grid and at the air permit. ERCOT is not energizing new 75 MW+ data center loads until its Batch Zero audit is done, with reports due Dec 10, 2026. TCEQ halted data center permits on Sep 21. Governor-elect Hinojosa campaigned on a statutory moratorium, and BMI says the pause could run into late 2027. [Office of the Texas Governor: Governor Abbott directs comprehensive data center audit (2026-08-03); ERCOT presentation to PUCT: Batch Zero verification and audit, community impact review (2026-08-20); Office of the Texas Governor: Governor Abbott directs TCEQ to halt data center permits (2026-09-21); DCD: Anti-data center candidates claim victory across the US in 2026 midterm elections (2026-11-04); DCD: More than half of US hyperscale projects face 'regulatory friction' after midterms (B (2026-11-05)]
- Governors, not legislatures, are writing the rules. No state had enacted a moratorium by statute as of Sep 15 (NCSL). Executive action has filled the gap: New York's EO 62 pause; incentive pauses in Ohio, Illinois, and Nebraska; and review or cost regimes in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, Kentucky, and Louisiana. Governors-elect in Georgia and Ohio pledged pauses on Nov 3. [NCSL: Which States Are Banning Data Centers? (updated Sep 15, 2026) (2026-09-15); NCSL: New York hits pause on data centers. Will other states follow? (2026-07-15); Ohio Governor: DeWine announces pause of data center tax exemption (2026-05-27); Gov. Pritzker pauses new data center tax incentives (2026-06-05); Nebraska Executive Order 26-17 (ImagiNE Nebraska data center applications) (2026-07-20); Commonwealth of Pennsylvania: Governor Shapiro signs executive order on data center develo (2026-08-18); Office of Governor Moore: executive order codifying responsible data center development fr (2026-09-23); Mass.gov: Executive Order No. 658, responsible data center development (2026-09-08); WKYT: Gov. Beshear signs executive order increasing requirements for data center developer (2026-08-06); Louisiana Executive Order JML 26-058: Ratepayer and Community Protection criteria for data (2026-06-25); DCD: Anti-data center candidates claim victory across the US in 2026 midterm elections (2026-11-04)]
- Northern Virginia closed the front door. Loudoun paused new applications for 12 months on Sep 16. Virginia added a $0.011/kWh data center electricity tax from Jul 1. The PW Digital Gateway rezonings are void. Vacancy is 0.24%, with 10.8 MW available. [DCD: Virginia's Loudoun County board votes to pause new data center applications (2026-09-18); Virginia budget HB30 (reenrolled) Item 3-5.24: Data center electricity consumption tax (2026-06-29); Prince William County: PW Digital Gateway status page (2026-11-05); CBRE, North America Data Center Trends H1 2026 (2026-08)]
- Local bans are now an election outcome. Voters passed nearly every data center restriction on the Nov 3 ballots, including at least 14 in Ohio alone. Trackers count about 950 or more local data center moratoria and bans: GridPermit records 959 in force across 45 states, and Programs.com counts 958 adopted since 2022. [DCD: Local data center moratoria, limits, and restrictions voted in across the US (2026-11-04); The Guardian: Datacenters were on the ballot. US voters rejected them (2026-11-04); GridPermit: Data Center Policy Map (local moratoria, state laws, large-load tariffs) (2026-11-05); Programs.com: Data Center Moratoriums by State tracker (2026) (2026-11-05)]
- 'Pay your own way' is the new interconnection standard. Large-load tariffs now require collateral, minimum bills, and exit fees: AEP Ohio's queue fell from about 30 GW to 5.6 GW, ComEd's from 39 GW to 25 GW. PJM's Large Load registry took effect Oct 12. California, New Jersey, Tennessee, and Pennsylvania have put cost-causation into law or orders. Behind-the-meter gas is the next battleground, after a federal judge's Nov 2 ruling on the Southaven turbines. [AEP Ohio: Updates PUCO on data center load, figures show tariff is working (2026-02); ComEd: secures over $1 billion in financial commitments from large load projects (2026-09-16); FERC order ER26-3515 on PJM Large Load definition and registry (2026-10-09); Governor of California: Newsom signs most comprehensive data center laws in the nation (2026-09-21); New Jersey P.L. 2026, c.32 (A796) Data Center Fair Share Act (2026-07-07); Nashville Post: TVA votes to increase rate payment for data centers (2026-08); Moratorium Nation dataset (M. Bommarito, CC BY 4.0), current through Sep 23, 2026 (2026-09-23); Commonwealth of Pennsylvania: Governor Shapiro signs executive order on data center develo (2026-08-18); Mississippi Today: Federal judge rules Southaven data center gas turbines must have air pe (2026-11-02)]
Markets click for power, projects, rules, pending legislation
coolingPrimary #3
Virginia: Northern Virginia + Richmond
Dominion Energy (PJM); NOVEC; Rappahannock Electric
mixedPrimary #1
Dallas-Fort Worth
Oncor and other ERCOT TDSPs (ERCOT)
mixedPrimary #2
Atlanta + Georgia secondary
Georgia Power (Southern Co.), Georgia EMCs; non-RTO (SERC)
coolingPrimary #4
Columbus / Central Ohio
AEP Ohio (PJM); also AES Ohio, co-ops
coolingPrimary #5
Chicago
ComEd (Exelon, PJM)
coolingPrimary #6
Phoenix
APS, SRP (WestConnect / non-RTO)
coolingPrimary #7
Oregon: Hillsboro / Portland + The Dalles
Portland General Electric; BPA; NW public utilities
coolingPrimary #9
New York / New Jersey
NYISO (Con Ed, etc.); PJM (PSE&G, JCP&L, ACE, RECO)
coolingPrimary #10
Silicon Valley
Silicon Valley Power (Santa Clara muni), PG&E (CAISO)
mixedSecondary #1
Austin / San Antonio
CPS Energy (muni), Austin Energy (muni), LCRA/co-ops (ERCOT)
mixedSecondary #2
The Carolinas (Charlotte, Triangle, Upstate SC)
Duke Energy Carolinas/Progress, Dominion SC, Santee Cooper (non-RTO)
heatingSecondary #3
Reno / Tahoe-Reno Industrial Center
NV Energy (Sierra Pacific), WEIM
heatingSecondary #4
Salt Lake City / Utah
Rocky Mountain Power (PacifiCorp), WEIM
mixedSecondary #6
Minneapolis-St. Paul / Minnesota
Xcel Energy (MISO)
mixedSecondary #7
Las Vegas
NV Energy (Nevada Power)
coolingSecondary #8
Omaha / Council Bluffs
OPPD (public power, SPP); MidAmerican (Iowa side, MISO)
coolingSecondary #9
Denver / Colorado Front Range
Xcel Energy (Public Service Co. of Colorado)
mixedTertiary #1
West Texas (Abilene, Shackelford, Permian)
ERCOT (Oncor, AEP Texas, co-ops); behind-the-meter gas
heatingTertiary #2
Iowa (Des Moines, Cedar Rapids)
MidAmerican Energy (MISO), Alliant Energy/IPL (MISO)
mixedTertiary #3
Houston
CenterPoint Houston Electric (ERCOT)
heatingTertiary #4
Tulsa / Northeast Oklahoma
PSO (AEP, SPP); GRDA
heatingTertiary #5
The Dakotas
Basin Electric / co-ops, Xcel, MDU, Otter Tail (SPP/MISO)
mixedTertiary #6
Kansas City
Evergy (SPP)
heatingTertiary #7
Cheyenne / Laramie County, WY
Black Hills Energy; Tallgrass power hub (behind-the-meter)
mixedTertiary #8
Texas Panhandle (Amarillo)
Xcel / Southwestern Public Service (SPP, outside ERCOT)
coolingTertiary #9
Washington: Central WA (Quincy/Wenatchee) + Seattle
Grant PUD, Chelan PUD, Douglas PUD (hydro); Seattle City Light / PSE
mixedGrid stability #7
Nashville / Middle Tennessee
TVA + local power companies (NES)
mixedGrid stability #8
Memphis / North Mississippi
MLGW / TVA; Entergy Mississippi; on-site turbines
mixedHyperscale pipeline
Indiana (Northern Indiana + Indianapolis)
NIPSCO / NIPSCO GenCo, Indiana Michigan Power (AEP, PJM), Duke Indiana, AES Indiana (MISO)
mixedHyperscale pipeline
Pennsylvania (Susquehanna, Homer City, SE PA)
PPL, PECO, Penelec/FirstEnergy (PJM); co-located generation
Watchlist big pipelines outside the 30
- Louisiana: Meta Hyperion (Richland Parish): Entergy's generation settlement for the campus gets an LPSC vote next month. EO JML 26-058 ties the sales-tax exemption to ratepayer and community protections. [Utility Dive: Entergy makes progress on Arkansas data center, reports strong Q3 sales (2026-11-05); Louisiana Executive Order JML 26-058: Ratepayer and Community Protection criteria for data (2026-06-25)]
- Wisconsin: Microsoft Fairwater (Mount Pleasant) is operating, and Stargate Port Washington (Vantage/Oracle) is targeting partial power in Dec 2027 after regulators made ATC restart a $1B+ transmission application. Governor-elect Crowley wants 100% renewables as a condition of approval. [Microsoft: completes construction on first datacenter facility in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsi (2026-06-23); Stargate.how: October status check, where every Stargate site stands (2026-10-18); DCD: More than half of US hyperscale projects face 'regulatory friction' after midterms (B (2026-11-05)]
- Kentucky: TeraWulf Justified (Hawesville, 480 MW) is leased to Anthropic with a Google credit backstop. EO 2026-494 adds energy-plan and ratepayer requirements, and Louisville Metro has a 6-month pause. [DCD: Google to serve as credit backstop for TeraWulf data center in Kentucky (2026-11-05); WKYT: Gov. Beshear signs executive order increasing requirements for data center developer (2026-08-06); Programs.com: Data Center Moratoriums by State tracker (2026) (2026-11-05)]
- Alabama: Lambda's Project Red Clay (Lowndes County) plans 1 GW, potentially 1.5 GW, with first operations targeted for Q4 2028. Act 2026-573 limits abatements for 100 MW+ sites starting in 2027. [DCD: Lambda to develop four-building data center campus in Lowndes County, Alabama (2026-11-05); Moratorium Nation dataset (M. Bommarito, CC BY 4.0), current through Sep 23, 2026 (2026-09-23)]
- Arkansas: An amended Entergy/Google contract adds 350 MW of storage and 440 MW of solar, with a PSC hearing in January. [Utility Dive: Entergy makes progress on Arkansas data center, reports strong Q3 sales (2026-11-05)]
- Michigan: Stargate 'The Barn' (Saline Twp): an appeal of DTE's conditionally approved 1,383 MW contracts is pending. Michigan has 130+ local moratoria in force. [Stargate.how: October status check, where every Stargate site stands (2026-10-18); Moratorium Nation dataset (M. Bommarito, CC BY 4.0), current through Sep 23, 2026 (2026-09-23)]
- New Mexico: Project Jupiter (Doña Ana County) is in a force majeure dispute and still has no air permit for its fuel-cell microgrid. [Stargate.how: October status check, where every Stargate site stands (2026-10-18)]
- Mississippi: Amazon has a $25B Mississippi plan. SpaceXAI's Southaven expansion faces a federal air-permit ruling. [Amazon: to invest $25 billion in Mississippi data centers (2026-11-05); Mississippi Today: Federal judge rules Southaven data center gas turbines must have air pe (2026-11-02)]